Recent model consensus from regional forecasts points to overnight minimum temperatures in Taipei near 24–26°C under stable subtropical high pressure and light easterly flow, supporting the tight clustering around 26°C and the 21°C-or-below outcome. Persistent humidity near 90% and variable low-level cloud cover limit radiative cooling, while urban heat effects and exact observation timing at the official station create measurable uncertainty in the final low. No approaching tropical systems are altering steering patterns or adding moisture that would shift the range sharply. Traders are weighting the balance between typical September climatology and small forecast spreads in the latest runs.