The market-implied odds reflect real-time observational data from Shanghai meteorological stations confirming a daily minimum of exactly 25°C on August 9, with no lower readings recorded through the resolution window. Official temperature monitoring shows typical August conditions dominated by subtropical high pressure and urban heat effects that prevented further cooling overnight or during early morning hours. This consensus aligns with historical August minima for the region, where averages hover near 26–28°C but can dip under stable atmospheric patterns. A late-day cold front, sensor recalibration, or unreported microclimate anomaly remains the primary scenario that could shift outcomes, though current model runs and station networks indicate low likelihood of such changes before final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$42,305 Vol.
$42,305 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$42,305 Vol.
$42,305 Vol.
Aug 9, 2026
22°C or below
$6,332 Vol.
No
23°C
$3,847 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,685 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,642 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$13,271 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,887 Vol.
No
28°C
$6,242 Vol.
No
29°C
$840 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,329 Vol.
No
31°C
$933 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$1,297 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied odds reflect real-time observational data from Shanghai meteorological stations confirming a daily minimum of exactly 25°C on August 9, with no lower readings recorded through the resolution window. Official temperature monitoring shows typical August conditions dominated by subtropical high pressure and urban heat effects that prevented further cooling overnight or during early morning hours. This consensus aligns with historical August minima for the region, where averages hover near 26–28°C but can dip under stable atmospheric patterns. A late-day cold front, sensor recalibration, or unreported microclimate anomaly remains the primary scenario that could shift outcomes, though current model runs and station networks indicate low likelihood of such changes before final verification.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$42,305End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied odds reflect real-time observational data from Shanghai meteorological stations confirming a daily minimum of exactly 25°C on August 9, with no lower readings recorded through the resolution window. Official temperature monitoring shows typical August conditions dominated by subtropical high pressure and urban heat effects that prevented further cooling overnight or during early morning hours. This consensus aligns with historical August minima for the region, where averages hover near 26–28°C but can dip under stable atmospheric patterns. A late-day cold front, sensor recalibration, or unreported microclimate anomaly remains the primary scenario that could shift outcomes, though current model runs and station networks indicate low likelihood of such changes before final verification.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$42,305End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The market-implied odds reflect real-time observational data from Shanghai meteorological stations confirming a daily minimum of exactly 25°C on August 9, with no lower readings recorded through the resolution window. Official temperature monitoring shows typical August conditions dominated by subtropical high pressure and urban heat effects that prevented further cooling overnight or during early morning hours. This consensus aligns with historical August minima for the region, where averages hover near 26–28°C but can dip under stable atmospheric patterns. A late-day cold front, sensor recalibration, or unreported microclimate anomaly remains the primary scenario that could shift outcomes, though current model runs and station networks indicate low likelihood of such changes before final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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