Traders assign a 100% implied probability to a 28°C low in Shanghai on August 8, 2026, driven by convergent forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration showing nighttime temperatures stabilizing near this threshold amid typical subtropical summer conditions. Persistent high humidity, light winds, and cloud cover have limited radiative cooling, keeping the diurnal minimum aligned with ensemble model outputs projecting 27–29°C. Official observational data from urban stations reinforce this range, with recent days recording comparable lows. An unexpected cold surge or sharp drop in dew points could shift readings lower, though current atmospheric patterns make such deviations improbable before midnight resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 8?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 8?
28°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$50,466 Vol.
$50,466 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$50,466 Vol.
$50,466 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
22°C or below
$1,051 Vol.
No
23°C
$2,314 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,091 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,429 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,713 Vol.
No
27°C
$4,800 Vol.
No
28°C
$17,358 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$7,822 Vol.
No
30°C
$5,238 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,517 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$134 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign a 100% implied probability to a 28°C low in Shanghai on August 8, 2026, driven by convergent forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration showing nighttime temperatures stabilizing near this threshold amid typical subtropical summer conditions. Persistent high humidity, light winds, and cloud cover have limited radiative cooling, keeping the diurnal minimum aligned with ensemble model outputs projecting 27–29°C. Official observational data from urban stations reinforce this range, with recent days recording comparable lows. An unexpected cold surge or sharp drop in dew points could shift readings lower, though current atmospheric patterns make such deviations improbable before midnight resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$50,466End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign a 100% implied probability to a 28°C low in Shanghai on August 8, 2026, driven by convergent forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration showing nighttime temperatures stabilizing near this threshold amid typical subtropical summer conditions. Persistent high humidity, light winds, and cloud cover have limited radiative cooling, keeping the diurnal minimum aligned with ensemble model outputs projecting 27–29°C. Official observational data from urban stations reinforce this range, with recent days recording comparable lows. An unexpected cold surge or sharp drop in dew points could shift readings lower, though current atmospheric patterns make such deviations improbable before midnight resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$50,466End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders assign a 100% implied probability to a 28°C low in Shanghai on August 8, 2026, driven by convergent forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration showing nighttime temperatures stabilizing near this threshold amid typical subtropical summer conditions. Persistent high humidity, light winds, and cloud cover have limited radiative cooling, keeping the diurnal minimum aligned with ensemble model outputs projecting 27–29°C. Official observational data from urban stations reinforce this range, with recent days recording comparable lows. An unexpected cold surge or sharp drop in dew points could shift readings lower, though current atmospheric patterns make such deviations improbable before midnight resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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