Recent meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration confirm Shanghai’s minimum temperature on August 18 will reach 26°C, driving the market’s 100% implied probability. Mid-August conditions under the western Pacific subtropical high typically produce stable nocturnal temperatures around this level, with urban heat retention limiting further cooling and aligning closely with historical August minima. Forecasters note narrow uncertainty ranges in short-range guidance, supporting the strong trader consensus. A sudden unforecasted cold surge or localized station measurement discrepancy could still alter the recorded low, though such shifts appear unlikely given current atmospheric stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 18?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 18?
26°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$19,581 Vol.
$19,581 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$19,581 Vol.
$19,581 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
20°C or below
$462 Vol.
No
21°C
$462 Vol.
No
22°C
$331 Vol.
No
23°C
$436 Vol.
No
24°C
$674 Vol.
No
25°C
$3,930 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,842 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$6,750 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,646 Vol.
No
29°C
$546 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$502 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration confirm Shanghai’s minimum temperature on August 18 will reach 26°C, driving the market’s 100% implied probability. Mid-August conditions under the western Pacific subtropical high typically produce stable nocturnal temperatures around this level, with urban heat retention limiting further cooling and aligning closely with historical August minima. Forecasters note narrow uncertainty ranges in short-range guidance, supporting the strong trader consensus. A sudden unforecasted cold surge or localized station measurement discrepancy could still alter the recorded low, though such shifts appear unlikely given current atmospheric stability.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$19,581End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration confirm Shanghai’s minimum temperature on August 18 will reach 26°C, driving the market’s 100% implied probability. Mid-August conditions under the western Pacific subtropical high typically produce stable nocturnal temperatures around this level, with urban heat retention limiting further cooling and aligning closely with historical August minima. Forecasters note narrow uncertainty ranges in short-range guidance, supporting the strong trader consensus. A sudden unforecasted cold surge or localized station measurement discrepancy could still alter the recorded low, though such shifts appear unlikely given current atmospheric stability.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19,581End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent meteorological observations and model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration confirm Shanghai’s minimum temperature on August 18 will reach 26°C, driving the market’s 100% implied probability. Mid-August conditions under the western Pacific subtropical high typically produce stable nocturnal temperatures around this level, with urban heat retention limiting further cooling and aligning closely with historical August minima. Forecasters note narrow uncertainty ranges in short-range guidance, supporting the strong trader consensus. A sudden unforecasted cold surge or localized station measurement discrepancy could still alter the recorded low, though such shifts appear unlikely given current atmospheric stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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