**Trader consensus has converged on a 26°C minimum for Shanghai on August 12, 2026, reflecting near-certainty from official forecasts.** Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and light rain from a tropical rainstorm have suppressed radiative cooling overnight, locking nighttime temperatures in a narrow 26–27°C band according to multiple model runs and station data. This aligns with typical mid-August climatology under weak steering flow and elevated dew points that limit diurnal temperature ranges. A sudden break in cloud cover or unexpected northerly advection could allow modest additional cooling below the threshold, but current conditions and short-term guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration make such shifts improbable before the daily minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 12?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 12?
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$21,798 Vol.
$21,798 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$21,798 Vol.
$21,798 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
21°C or below
$940 Vol.
No
22°C
$684 Vol.
No
23°C
$846 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,739 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,199 Vol.
No
26°C
$4,643 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$6,168 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,089 Vol.
No
29°C
$624 Vol.
No
30°C
$414 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$452 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on a 26°C minimum for Shanghai on August 12, 2026, reflecting near-certainty from official forecasts.** Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and light rain from a tropical rainstorm have suppressed radiative cooling overnight, locking nighttime temperatures in a narrow 26–27°C band according to multiple model runs and station data. This aligns with typical mid-August climatology under weak steering flow and elevated dew points that limit diurnal temperature ranges. A sudden break in cloud cover or unexpected northerly advection could allow modest additional cooling below the threshold, but current conditions and short-term guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration make such shifts improbable before the daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$21,798End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on a 26°C minimum for Shanghai on August 12, 2026, reflecting near-certainty from official forecasts.** Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and light rain from a tropical rainstorm have suppressed radiative cooling overnight, locking nighttime temperatures in a narrow 26–27°C band according to multiple model runs and station data. This aligns with typical mid-August climatology under weak steering flow and elevated dew points that limit diurnal temperature ranges. A sudden break in cloud cover or unexpected northerly advection could allow modest additional cooling below the threshold, but current conditions and short-term guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration make such shifts improbable before the daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,798End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus has converged on a 26°C minimum for Shanghai on August 12, 2026, reflecting near-certainty from official forecasts.** Persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and light rain from a tropical rainstorm have suppressed radiative cooling overnight, locking nighttime temperatures in a narrow 26–27°C band according to multiple model runs and station data. This aligns with typical mid-August climatology under weak steering flow and elevated dew points that limit diurnal temperature ranges. A sudden break in cloud cover or unexpected northerly advection could allow modest additional cooling below the threshold, but current conditions and short-term guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration make such shifts improbable before the daily minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions