Recent meteorological observations from Sao Paulo on September 11 confirm a minimum temperature of 16°C, aligning with the market's strong 95% implied probability for that outcome. Diurnal cooling under clear to partly cloudy conditions, combined with typical September seasonal patterns featuring overnight lows in the mid-teens Celsius, supported this reading at official monitoring sites. Model consensus and real-time station data showed limited variability, with no significant cold advection or urban heat island effects pushing extremes lower. A shift in resolution criteria, such as reliance on a secondary station reporting 15°C or measurement revisions, represents the primary scenario that could alter the current trader consensus.