Recent atmospheric conditions over Paris, including a lingering warm air mass from the current heatwave and elevated overnight humidity, have limited radiative cooling and supported minimum temperatures near 21°C according to National Meteorological Service guidance and model consensus. With daytime highs reaching 29–31°C amid mostly cloudy skies, the thermal inertia from these factors has anchored trader consensus on the 21°C outcome at a 96.7% implied probability. This positioning aligns with historical patterns during late-summer warm spells, where minimums rarely fall below 19°C without frontal passage. The primary risk to this view remains an unforecasted nocturnal dip—such as clearer skies enabling greater heat loss or a localized measurement variance from official stations—that could push the recorded low to 20°C or below before the day's data finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 17?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 17?
21°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$22,876 Vol.
$22,876 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$22,876 Vol.
$22,876 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
16°C or below
$1,441 Vol.
No
17°C
$3,304 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,855 Vol.
No
19°C
$2,307 Vol.
No
20°C
$2,229 Vol.
No
21°C
$2,954 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$539 Vol.
No
23°C
$5,925 Vol.
No
24°C
$867 Vol.
No
25°C
$228 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$228 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent atmospheric conditions over Paris, including a lingering warm air mass from the current heatwave and elevated overnight humidity, have limited radiative cooling and supported minimum temperatures near 21°C according to National Meteorological Service guidance and model consensus. With daytime highs reaching 29–31°C amid mostly cloudy skies, the thermal inertia from these factors has anchored trader consensus on the 21°C outcome at a 96.7% implied probability. This positioning aligns with historical patterns during late-summer warm spells, where minimums rarely fall below 19°C without frontal passage. The primary risk to this view remains an unforecasted nocturnal dip—such as clearer skies enabling greater heat loss or a localized measurement variance from official stations—that could push the recorded low to 20°C or below before the day's data finalize.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$22,876End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent atmospheric conditions over Paris, including a lingering warm air mass from the current heatwave and elevated overnight humidity, have limited radiative cooling and supported minimum temperatures near 21°C according to National Meteorological Service guidance and model consensus. With daytime highs reaching 29–31°C amid mostly cloudy skies, the thermal inertia from these factors has anchored trader consensus on the 21°C outcome at a 96.7% implied probability. This positioning aligns with historical patterns during late-summer warm spells, where minimums rarely fall below 19°C without frontal passage. The primary risk to this view remains an unforecasted nocturnal dip—such as clearer skies enabling greater heat loss or a localized measurement variance from official stations—that could push the recorded low to 20°C or below before the day's data finalize.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$22,876End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent atmospheric conditions over Paris, including a lingering warm air mass from the current heatwave and elevated overnight humidity, have limited radiative cooling and supported minimum temperatures near 21°C according to National Meteorological Service guidance and model consensus. With daytime highs reaching 29–31°C amid mostly cloudy skies, the thermal inertia from these factors has anchored trader consensus on the 21°C outcome at a 96.7% implied probability. This positioning aligns with historical patterns during late-summer warm spells, where minimums rarely fall below 19°C without frontal passage. The primary risk to this view remains an unforecasted nocturnal dip—such as clearer skies enabling greater heat loss or a localized measurement variance from official stations—that could push the recorded low to 20°C or below before the day's data finalize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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