Trader consensus heavily favors an 18°C minimum in Paris on August 12 due to current heatwave conditions, with official forecasts from agencies like Météo-France pointing to overnight lows stabilizing near that level amid daytime highs exceeding 35°C. Persistent high pressure and clear skies have limited radiative cooling, keeping temperatures elevated compared to August climatological averages of 15–18°C, while urban heat island effects in the city further support this floor. Model runs show minimal divergence on this threshold, though a late-day thunderstorm or unexpected wind shift could introduce slight cooling. Resolution hinges on official station readings at Paris-Montsouris, with any revision in final verified data representing the main uncertainty for market participants.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 12?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 12?
18°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$13,201 Vol.
$13,201 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$13,201 Vol.
$13,201 Vol.
Aug 12, 2026
14°C or below
$383 Vol.
No
15°C
$829 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,207 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,807 Vol.
No
18°C
$3,633 Vol.
Yes
19°C
$2,252 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,534 Vol.
No
21°C
$304 Vol.
No
22°C
$574 Vol.
No
23°C
$345 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$335 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors an 18°C minimum in Paris on August 12 due to current heatwave conditions, with official forecasts from agencies like Météo-France pointing to overnight lows stabilizing near that level amid daytime highs exceeding 35°C. Persistent high pressure and clear skies have limited radiative cooling, keeping temperatures elevated compared to August climatological averages of 15–18°C, while urban heat island effects in the city further support this floor. Model runs show minimal divergence on this threshold, though a late-day thunderstorm or unexpected wind shift could introduce slight cooling. Resolution hinges on official station readings at Paris-Montsouris, with any revision in final verified data representing the main uncertainty for market participants.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$13,201End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors an 18°C minimum in Paris on August 12 due to current heatwave conditions, with official forecasts from agencies like Météo-France pointing to overnight lows stabilizing near that level amid daytime highs exceeding 35°C. Persistent high pressure and clear skies have limited radiative cooling, keeping temperatures elevated compared to August climatological averages of 15–18°C, while urban heat island effects in the city further support this floor. Model runs show minimal divergence on this threshold, though a late-day thunderstorm or unexpected wind shift could introduce slight cooling. Resolution hinges on official station readings at Paris-Montsouris, with any revision in final verified data representing the main uncertainty for market participants.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,201End Date
Aug 12, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus heavily favors an 18°C minimum in Paris on August 12 due to current heatwave conditions, with official forecasts from agencies like Météo-France pointing to overnight lows stabilizing near that level amid daytime highs exceeding 35°C. Persistent high pressure and clear skies have limited radiative cooling, keeping temperatures elevated compared to August climatological averages of 15–18°C, while urban heat island effects in the city further support this floor. Model runs show minimal divergence on this threshold, though a late-day thunderstorm or unexpected wind shift could introduce slight cooling. Resolution hinges on official station readings at Paris-Montsouris, with any revision in final verified data representing the main uncertainty for market participants.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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