Traders have converged on a 74–75°F low for New York City on August 8 with near-certainty because official observations from the LaGuardia Airport station, the designated resolution source, recorded a minimum in that narrow band after a day of above-normal warmth and scattered storms. August climatology typically features overnight lows near 70°F at Central Park, yet persistent southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under humid, cloudy conditions pushed the reading several degrees higher. With the date now passed, market-implied odds reflect verified station data rather than forecast uncertainty. Only a post-event data revision or station discrepancy could realistically alter the outcome, an eventuality viewed as remote given National Weather Service quality controls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 8?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 8?
74-75°F 100.0%
65°F or below <1%
66-67°F <1%
68-69°F <1%
$14,667 Vol.
$14,667 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
65°F or below
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
Yes
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84°F or higher
No
74-75°F 100.0%
65°F or below <1%
66-67°F <1%
68-69°F <1%
$14,667 Vol.
$14,667 Vol.
Aug 8, 2026
65°F or below
$849 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$1,307 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$843 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$1,700 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$1,033 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$1,605 Vol.
Yes
76-77°F
$3,156 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$1,117 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$1,499 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$958 Vol.
No
84°F or higher
$600 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on a 74–75°F low for New York City on August 8 with near-certainty because official observations from the LaGuardia Airport station, the designated resolution source, recorded a minimum in that narrow band after a day of above-normal warmth and scattered storms. August climatology typically features overnight lows near 70°F at Central Park, yet persistent southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under humid, cloudy conditions pushed the reading several degrees higher. With the date now passed, market-implied odds reflect verified station data rather than forecast uncertainty. Only a post-event data revision or station discrepancy could realistically alter the outcome, an eventuality viewed as remote given National Weather Service quality controls.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$14,667End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on a 74–75°F low for New York City on August 8 with near-certainty because official observations from the LaGuardia Airport station, the designated resolution source, recorded a minimum in that narrow band after a day of above-normal warmth and scattered storms. August climatology typically features overnight lows near 70°F at Central Park, yet persistent southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under humid, cloudy conditions pushed the reading several degrees higher. With the date now passed, market-implied odds reflect verified station data rather than forecast uncertainty. Only a post-event data revision or station discrepancy could realistically alter the outcome, an eventuality viewed as remote given National Weather Service quality controls.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,667End Date
Aug 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have converged on a 74–75°F low for New York City on August 8 with near-certainty because official observations from the LaGuardia Airport station, the designated resolution source, recorded a minimum in that narrow band after a day of above-normal warmth and scattered storms. August climatology typically features overnight lows near 70°F at Central Park, yet persistent southerly flow and limited radiational cooling under humid, cloudy conditions pushed the reading several degrees higher. With the date now passed, market-implied odds reflect verified station data rather than forecast uncertainty. Only a post-event data revision or station discrepancy could realistically alter the outcome, an eventuality viewed as remote given National Weather Service quality controls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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