Persistent warm, humid conditions driven by a stable subtropical air mass kept overnight lows in the upper 70s across New York City on August 6, 2026. National Weather Service data and model consensus showed elevated dew points limiting radiational cooling, consistent with late-summer thermal inertia and above-average August norms for Central Park. This setup produced a daily minimum aligning with the 78–79°F range at official stations, underpinning the market’s 100% implied probability. An unforecasted cold front or enhanced precipitation before dawn could have introduced modest cooling, though current observations and ensemble agreement make such deviations improbable before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 6?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 6?
78-79°F 100.0%
65°F or below <1%
66-67°F <1%
68-69°F <1%
$16,309 Vol.
$16,309 Vol.
Aug 6, 2026
65°F or below
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
Yes
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84°F or higher
No
78-79°F 100.0%
65°F or below <1%
66-67°F <1%
68-69°F <1%
$16,309 Vol.
$16,309 Vol.
Aug 6, 2026
65°F or below
$496 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$441 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$735 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$2,824 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$775 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$1,234 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$3,834 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$4,129 Vol.
Yes
80-81°F
$708 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$646 Vol.
No
84°F or higher
$486 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent warm, humid conditions driven by a stable subtropical air mass kept overnight lows in the upper 70s across New York City on August 6, 2026. National Weather Service data and model consensus showed elevated dew points limiting radiational cooling, consistent with late-summer thermal inertia and above-average August norms for Central Park. This setup produced a daily minimum aligning with the 78–79°F range at official stations, underpinning the market’s 100% implied probability. An unforecasted cold front or enhanced precipitation before dawn could have introduced modest cooling, though current observations and ensemble agreement make such deviations improbable before market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$16,309End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent warm, humid conditions driven by a stable subtropical air mass kept overnight lows in the upper 70s across New York City on August 6, 2026. National Weather Service data and model consensus showed elevated dew points limiting radiational cooling, consistent with late-summer thermal inertia and above-average August norms for Central Park. This setup produced a daily minimum aligning with the 78–79°F range at official stations, underpinning the market’s 100% implied probability. An unforecasted cold front or enhanced precipitation before dawn could have introduced modest cooling, though current observations and ensemble agreement make such deviations improbable before market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,309End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Persistent warm, humid conditions driven by a stable subtropical air mass kept overnight lows in the upper 70s across New York City on August 6, 2026. National Weather Service data and model consensus showed elevated dew points limiting radiational cooling, consistent with late-summer thermal inertia and above-average August norms for Central Park. This setup produced a daily minimum aligning with the 78–79°F range at official stations, underpinning the market’s 100% implied probability. An unforecasted cold front or enhanced precipitation before dawn could have introduced modest cooling, though current observations and ensemble agreement make such deviations improbable before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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