Traders converged on the 74-75°F bin at 100% implied probability because official observations from New York City stations, including LaGuardia Airport, recorded a minimum temperature in that narrow range overnight into August 19, 2026. Persistent summer warmth, elevated humidity, and limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies kept lows elevated well above seasonal averages near 67°F. Model guidance and surface analyses confirmed minimal cooling potential, eliminating realistic pathways to lower thresholds. Only an unforecasted cold-air intrusion or measurement revision could have shifted outcomes, scenarios precluded by the finalized data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 19?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 19?
74-75°F 100.0%
61°F or below <1%
62-63°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$9,025 Vol.
$9,025 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
61°F or below
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
Yes
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80°F or higher
No
74-75°F 100.0%
61°F or below <1%
62-63°F <1%
64-65°F <1%
$9,025 Vol.
$9,025 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
61°F or below
$129 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$134 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$823 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$839 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$1,124 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$1,489 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$1,652 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$1,160 Vol.
Yes
76-77°F
$1,083 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$290 Vol.
No
80°F or higher
$300 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders converged on the 74-75°F bin at 100% implied probability because official observations from New York City stations, including LaGuardia Airport, recorded a minimum temperature in that narrow range overnight into August 19, 2026. Persistent summer warmth, elevated humidity, and limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies kept lows elevated well above seasonal averages near 67°F. Model guidance and surface analyses confirmed minimal cooling potential, eliminating realistic pathways to lower thresholds. Only an unforecasted cold-air intrusion or measurement revision could have shifted outcomes, scenarios precluded by the finalized data.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$9,025End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders converged on the 74-75°F bin at 100% implied probability because official observations from New York City stations, including LaGuardia Airport, recorded a minimum temperature in that narrow range overnight into August 19, 2026. Persistent summer warmth, elevated humidity, and limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies kept lows elevated well above seasonal averages near 67°F. Model guidance and surface analyses confirmed minimal cooling potential, eliminating realistic pathways to lower thresholds. Only an unforecasted cold-air intrusion or measurement revision could have shifted outcomes, scenarios precluded by the finalized data.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,025End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders converged on the 74-75°F bin at 100% implied probability because official observations from New York City stations, including LaGuardia Airport, recorded a minimum temperature in that narrow range overnight into August 19, 2026. Persistent summer warmth, elevated humidity, and limited overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies kept lows elevated well above seasonal averages near 67°F. Model guidance and surface analyses confirmed minimal cooling potential, eliminating realistic pathways to lower thresholds. Only an unforecasted cold-air intrusion or measurement revision could have shifted outcomes, scenarios precluded by the finalized data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions