Current forecast models and official PAGASA observations position Manila's overnight minimum near 25–26°C on September 24, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and scattered thunderstorms that limit radiative cooling in this tropical setting. Historical September lows average 25–26°C, with recent model runs showing little deviation from seasonal norms amid light northeast winds and no significant cold advection. Trader emphasis on 26–27°C outcomes reflects consensus around these conditions, while lower-probability cooler thresholds account for potential heavier rain or measurement variability at urban stations. Updated agency briefings and final 24-hour data releases remain key near-term resolution factors.