Traders assign near-certainty (99.7%) to a 26°C minimum in Hong Kong on June 14 because official Hong Kong Observatory observations recorded that exact low under cloudy conditions with light northeasterly winds and high humidity. June climatology in the region features overnight lows typically between 25–28°C, consistent with the seasonal forecast for above-normal temperatures amid a neutral-to-weak ENSO state. The dominant market-implied outcome reflects verified station data rather than models, leaving little room for revision unless post-event quality control adjusts the official reading. Minor uncertainty persists around microsite variations or rare reporting delays, but these rarely alter the daily minimum by more than 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$80,723 Vol.
$80,723 Vol.
Jun 14, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$80,723 Vol.
$80,723 Vol.
Jun 14, 2026
22°C or below
$2,923 Vol.
No
23°C
$9,168 Vol.
No
24°C
$6,335 Vol.
No
25°C
$11,177 Vol.
No
26°C
$14,839 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$8,099 Vol.
No
28°C
$18,749 Vol.
No
29°C
$6,709 Vol.
No
30°C
$506 Vol.
No
31°C
$463 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$1,756 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign near-certainty (99.7%) to a 26°C minimum in Hong Kong on June 14 because official Hong Kong Observatory observations recorded that exact low under cloudy conditions with light northeasterly winds and high humidity. June climatology in the region features overnight lows typically between 25–28°C, consistent with the seasonal forecast for above-normal temperatures amid a neutral-to-weak ENSO state. The dominant market-implied outcome reflects verified station data rather than models, leaving little room for revision unless post-event quality control adjusts the official reading. Minor uncertainty persists around microsite variations or rare reporting delays, but these rarely alter the daily minimum by more than 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$80,723End Date
Jun 14, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign near-certainty (99.7%) to a 26°C minimum in Hong Kong on June 14 because official Hong Kong Observatory observations recorded that exact low under cloudy conditions with light northeasterly winds and high humidity. June climatology in the region features overnight lows typically between 25–28°C, consistent with the seasonal forecast for above-normal temperatures amid a neutral-to-weak ENSO state. The dominant market-implied outcome reflects verified station data rather than models, leaving little room for revision unless post-event quality control adjusts the official reading. Minor uncertainty persists around microsite variations or rare reporting delays, but these rarely alter the daily minimum by more than 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$80,723End Date
Jun 14, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders assign near-certainty (99.7%) to a 26°C minimum in Hong Kong on June 14 because official Hong Kong Observatory observations recorded that exact low under cloudy conditions with light northeasterly winds and high humidity. June climatology in the region features overnight lows typically between 25–28°C, consistent with the seasonal forecast for above-normal temperatures amid a neutral-to-weak ENSO state. The dominant market-implied outcome reflects verified station data rather than models, leaving little room for revision unless post-event quality control adjusts the official reading. Minor uncertainty persists around microsite variations or rare reporting delays, but these rarely alter the daily minimum by more than 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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