Real-time observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm the overnight minimum temperature stabilized at 25°C on June 13, 2026, aligning with subtropical June climatology where average lows typically range 25–27°C under humid conditions and light southerly flow. Persistent monsoon influences and cloud cover limited radiative cooling, while multi-model consensus and seasonal outlooks for above-normal temperatures reinforced this threshold without anomalous cold advection. Traders have assigned 99.5% implied probability to 25°C based on verified station data and skin-in-the-game assessment rather than forecasts. A realistic challenge would require an official data revision from the primary reporting site or an unseasonal late drop below 24°C, though current atmospheric patterns make such shifts highly improbable before final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$95,007 Vol.
$95,007 Vol.
Jun 13, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$95,007 Vol.
$95,007 Vol.
Jun 13, 2026
22°C or below
$8,157 Vol.
No
23°C
$8,446 Vol.
No
24°C
$10,176 Vol.
No
25°C
$19,830 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$24,748 Vol.
No
27°C
$12,106 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,630 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,430 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,527 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,481 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$1,478 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Real-time observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm the overnight minimum temperature stabilized at 25°C on June 13, 2026, aligning with subtropical June climatology where average lows typically range 25–27°C under humid conditions and light southerly flow. Persistent monsoon influences and cloud cover limited radiative cooling, while multi-model consensus and seasonal outlooks for above-normal temperatures reinforced this threshold without anomalous cold advection. Traders have assigned 99.5% implied probability to 25°C based on verified station data and skin-in-the-game assessment rather than forecasts. A realistic challenge would require an official data revision from the primary reporting site or an unseasonal late drop below 24°C, though current atmospheric patterns make such shifts highly improbable before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jun 11, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$95,007End Date
Jun 13, 2026Market Opened
Jun 11, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Real-time observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm the overnight minimum temperature stabilized at 25°C on June 13, 2026, aligning with subtropical June climatology where average lows typically range 25–27°C under humid conditions and light southerly flow. Persistent monsoon influences and cloud cover limited radiative cooling, while multi-model consensus and seasonal outlooks for above-normal temperatures reinforced this threshold without anomalous cold advection. Traders have assigned 99.5% implied probability to 25°C based on verified station data and skin-in-the-game assessment rather than forecasts. A realistic challenge would require an official data revision from the primary reporting site or an unseasonal late drop below 24°C, though current atmospheric patterns make such shifts highly improbable before final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 13 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$95,007End Date
Jun 13, 2026Market Opened
Jun 11, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Real-time observations from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm the overnight minimum temperature stabilized at 25°C on June 13, 2026, aligning with subtropical June climatology where average lows typically range 25–27°C under humid conditions and light southerly flow. Persistent monsoon influences and cloud cover limited radiative cooling, while multi-model consensus and seasonal outlooks for above-normal temperatures reinforced this threshold without anomalous cold advection. Traders have assigned 99.5% implied probability to 25°C based on verified station data and skin-in-the-game assessment rather than forecasts. A realistic challenge would require an official data revision from the primary reporting site or an unseasonal late drop below 24°C, though current atmospheric patterns make such shifts highly improbable before final resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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