Hong Kong's minimum temperature on July 12 is expected to fall in the upper-20s Celsius range under typical midsummer conditions of high humidity and scattered showers. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory points to overnight lows near 29°C within a 29–33°C daily range, consistent with seasonal forecasts for normal to above-normal temperatures driven by background climate warming. High moisture content and potential cloud cover limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat effects further moderate drops. Trader probabilities cluster around 28–29°C because modest differences in wind, shower timing, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the observed minimum by 1–2°C; lower outcomes would require clearer, drier air or stronger advection, while warmer readings align with persistent cloud and humidity. Updated model runs and HKO briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key variables for market movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 12?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 12?
29°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$42,045 Vol.
$42,045 Vol.
Jul 12, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
29°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$42,045 Vol.
$42,045 Vol.
Jul 12, 2026
23°C or below
$510 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,670 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,624 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,793 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,954 Vol.
No
28°C
$6,032 Vol.
No
29°C
$10,464 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$10,221 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,003 Vol.
No
32°C
$643 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$1,130 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's minimum temperature on July 12 is expected to fall in the upper-20s Celsius range under typical midsummer conditions of high humidity and scattered showers. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory points to overnight lows near 29°C within a 29–33°C daily range, consistent with seasonal forecasts for normal to above-normal temperatures driven by background climate warming. High moisture content and potential cloud cover limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat effects further moderate drops. Trader probabilities cluster around 28–29°C because modest differences in wind, shower timing, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the observed minimum by 1–2°C; lower outcomes would require clearer, drier air or stronger advection, while warmer readings align with persistent cloud and humidity. Updated model runs and HKO briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key variables for market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$42,045End Date
Jul 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong's minimum temperature on July 12 is expected to fall in the upper-20s Celsius range under typical midsummer conditions of high humidity and scattered showers. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory points to overnight lows near 29°C within a 29–33°C daily range, consistent with seasonal forecasts for normal to above-normal temperatures driven by background climate warming. High moisture content and potential cloud cover limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat effects further moderate drops. Trader probabilities cluster around 28–29°C because modest differences in wind, shower timing, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the observed minimum by 1–2°C; lower outcomes would require clearer, drier air or stronger advection, while warmer readings align with persistent cloud and humidity. Updated model runs and HKO briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key variables for market movement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$42,045End Date
Jul 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Hong Kong's minimum temperature on July 12 is expected to fall in the upper-20s Celsius range under typical midsummer conditions of high humidity and scattered showers. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory points to overnight lows near 29°C within a 29–33°C daily range, consistent with seasonal forecasts for normal to above-normal temperatures driven by background climate warming. High moisture content and potential cloud cover limit nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat effects further moderate drops. Trader probabilities cluster around 28–29°C because modest differences in wind, shower timing, or boundary-layer mixing can shift the observed minimum by 1–2°C; lower outcomes would require clearer, drier air or stronger advection, while warmer readings align with persistent cloud and humidity. Updated model runs and HKO briefings in the next 48 hours remain the key variables for market movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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