Traders assign near-certainty to a 25°C minimum in Hong Kong on August 3, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily observation confirming that exact low under typical subtropical summer conditions. Persistent high humidity, southeasterly flow from the South China Sea, and a stable thermal profile prevented overnight radiative cooling below this threshold, aligning with long-term August climatology where minimums rarely fall under 24–26°C without strong frontal passages or typhoon influence. The market-implied odds reflect verified station data rather than model projections, with negligible probability mass on other outcomes. Only a rare post-publication revision of the observatory record or a shift to an alternate measurement site could realistically alter the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 3?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 3?
25°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$31,925 Vol.
$31,925 Vol.
Aug 3, 2026
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$31,925 Vol.
$31,925 Vol.
Aug 3, 2026
21°C or below
$2,609 Vol.
No
22°C
$3,109 Vol.
No
23°C
$5,108 Vol.
No
24°C
$7,432 Vol.
No
25°C
$6,440 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$3,539 Vol.
No
27°C
$822 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,037 Vol.
No
29°C
$693 Vol.
No
30°C
$653 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$482 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign near-certainty to a 25°C minimum in Hong Kong on August 3, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily observation confirming that exact low under typical subtropical summer conditions. Persistent high humidity, southeasterly flow from the South China Sea, and a stable thermal profile prevented overnight radiative cooling below this threshold, aligning with long-term August climatology where minimums rarely fall under 24–26°C without strong frontal passages or typhoon influence. The market-implied odds reflect verified station data rather than model projections, with negligible probability mass on other outcomes. Only a rare post-publication revision of the observatory record or a shift to an alternate measurement site could realistically alter the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$31,925End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign near-certainty to a 25°C minimum in Hong Kong on August 3, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily observation confirming that exact low under typical subtropical summer conditions. Persistent high humidity, southeasterly flow from the South China Sea, and a stable thermal profile prevented overnight radiative cooling below this threshold, aligning with long-term August climatology where minimums rarely fall under 24–26°C without strong frontal passages or typhoon influence. The market-implied odds reflect verified station data rather than model projections, with negligible probability mass on other outcomes. Only a rare post-publication revision of the observatory record or a shift to an alternate measurement site could realistically alter the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$31,925End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders assign near-certainty to a 25°C minimum in Hong Kong on August 3, driven by the Hong Kong Observatory’s official daily observation confirming that exact low under typical subtropical summer conditions. Persistent high humidity, southeasterly flow from the South China Sea, and a stable thermal profile prevented overnight radiative cooling below this threshold, aligning with long-term August climatology where minimums rarely fall under 24–26°C without strong frontal passages or typhoon influence. The market-implied odds reflect verified station data rather than model projections, with negligible probability mass on other outcomes. Only a rare post-publication revision of the observatory record or a shift to an alternate measurement site could realistically alter the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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