**The Hong Kong Observatory's official recording of a 29°C minimum temperature on August 11, 2026, drives the near-certain 99.9% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Under persistent subtropical high pressure and a southwesterly airstream, limited nocturnal radiative cooling kept overnight lows elevated, consistent with climatological August baselines of 27–29°C. Forecasts from the HKO explicitly projected a morning minimum near 29°C, aligning with observed data from their primary station amid typical peak-summer humidity and minimal cloud cover overnight. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, treats this verified measurement as definitive for market resolution. Only an unreported station anomaly, post hoc data revision, or strict geographic/time-window criteria differing from standard HKO protocols could realistically alter the result, though such shifts remain improbable given the stable synoptic pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?
29°C 99.9%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$71,573 Vol.
$71,573 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
Yes
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
29°C 99.9%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$71,573 Vol.
$71,573 Vol.
Aug 11, 2026
24°C or below
$2,204 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,699 Vol.
No
26°C
$6,574 Vol.
No
27°C
$8,153 Vol.
No
28°C
$10,745 Vol.
No
29°C
$16,063 Vol.
Yes
30°C
$19,948 Vol.
No
31°C
$3,274 Vol.
No
32°C
$694 Vol.
No
33°C
$617 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$603 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The Hong Kong Observatory's official recording of a 29°C minimum temperature on August 11, 2026, drives the near-certain 99.9% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Under persistent subtropical high pressure and a southwesterly airstream, limited nocturnal radiative cooling kept overnight lows elevated, consistent with climatological August baselines of 27–29°C. Forecasts from the HKO explicitly projected a morning minimum near 29°C, aligning with observed data from their primary station amid typical peak-summer humidity and minimal cloud cover overnight. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, treats this verified measurement as definitive for market resolution. Only an unreported station anomaly, post hoc data revision, or strict geographic/time-window criteria differing from standard HKO protocols could realistically alter the result, though such shifts remain improbable given the stable synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$71,573End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The Hong Kong Observatory's official recording of a 29°C minimum temperature on August 11, 2026, drives the near-certain 99.9% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Under persistent subtropical high pressure and a southwesterly airstream, limited nocturnal radiative cooling kept overnight lows elevated, consistent with climatological August baselines of 27–29°C. Forecasts from the HKO explicitly projected a morning minimum near 29°C, aligning with observed data from their primary station amid typical peak-summer humidity and minimal cloud cover overnight. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, treats this verified measurement as definitive for market resolution. Only an unreported station anomaly, post hoc data revision, or strict geographic/time-window criteria differing from standard HKO protocols could realistically alter the result, though such shifts remain improbable given the stable synoptic pattern.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$71,573End Date
Aug 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**The Hong Kong Observatory's official recording of a 29°C minimum temperature on August 11, 2026, drives the near-certain 99.9% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Under persistent subtropical high pressure and a southwesterly airstream, limited nocturnal radiative cooling kept overnight lows elevated, consistent with climatological August baselines of 27–29°C. Forecasts from the HKO explicitly projected a morning minimum near 29°C, aligning with observed data from their primary station amid typical peak-summer humidity and minimal cloud cover overnight. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, treats this verified measurement as definitive for market resolution. Only an unreported station anomaly, post hoc data revision, or strict geographic/time-window criteria differing from standard HKO protocols could realistically alter the result, though such shifts remain improbable given the stable synoptic pattern.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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