**Trader consensus strongly favors an 18°C low for Chengdu on September 10, driven by consistent official forecasts showing overnight minima near 17–18°C amid persistent cloud cover, light rain, and high humidity.** Current observations from multiple sources, including Chinese meteorological reports and international models, indicate daytime highs around 22°C with minimal diurnal range due to overcast skies and precipitation that limit radiative cooling. Recent developments, including ongoing light rain and northeast winds under 3–4 levels, have kept temperatures stable without sharp drops. Historical September baselines for the region typically feature lows in the mid-to-upper teens, aligning with the current pattern. No major model shifts or sudden clearing have altered this outlook, supporting the market-implied probability near 90% for 18°C while leaving lower thresholds like 15°C or below as lower-probability outliers.