**Forecast model consensus points to an overnight low near 11–12°C in Ankara on October 13, 2026, driving the overwhelming 97.5% market-implied probability for exactly 11°C.** Multiple runs from sources including GFS and Open-Meteo show minimum temperatures of 11–12°C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light rain or thunderstorms possible, limiting radiative cooling at the city’s ~870 m elevation. This aligns with typical early-autumn conditions where daytime highs reach 20–22°C before temperatures fall steadily after sunset. The strong consensus reflects consistent outputs across meteorological agencies and the limited time remaining for significant deviations. A clear-sky surprise or stronger-than-expected northerly flow could push readings to 9–10°C and shift odds, though current observations and model agreement make that outcome unlikely.