Recent model runs from European weather agencies indicate persistent cloud cover and moderate westerly winds across the North Sea region are moderating overnight radiative cooling in Amsterdam, supporting a minimum temperature near 15–16°C rather than the historical September average low of 11°C. These conditions suppress the typical nocturnal temperature drop by trapping heat near the surface while dew points around 14–16°C limit further declines. Traders assign roughly equal weight to 14–16°C outcomes because small shifts in wind speed or localized fog formation—common in the polder landscape—could tip the official KNMI reading by 1°C, with resolution hinging on the precise 24-hour minimum recorded through the early morning hours.