Rafael López Aliaga’s Renovación Popular list holds a narrow lead in the October 4, 2026, Lima municipal election count, with roughly 27.7% of valid votes against Francis Allison’s 26.8% at over 92% of tallies processed. This edge, combined with López Aliaga’s prior mayoral tenure and party infrastructure, underpins trader consensus favoring his victory. The outcome hinges on the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones ruling whether his placement as first councilor on the list circumvents constitutional limits on immediate re-election. Late shifts in remaining actas or a JNE decision directing the mayoral credential to another list member represent the main scenarios that could alter the result.