Rafael López Aliaga’s Renovación Popular list holds a narrow lead in the October 4, 2026, Lima municipal election count, with roughly 27.7% of valid votes against 26.8% for Francis Allison of Avanza País as more than 92% of tally sheets are processed. The margin stands near 45,000 votes, though thousands of disputed actas remain under review by electoral juries and the JNE. López Aliaga, who resigned the mayoralty in 2025 to pursue a presidential bid, ran as first councillor after the party’s original nominee withdrew; Peruvian rules bar immediate re-election, creating uncertainty over whether he can assume the post if his list prevails. Traders assign him an 88.6% implied probability, reflecting the first-place position and procedural precedent, while other listed candidates trail far behind with negligible shares. Remaining recounts and legal challenges over ballot validity or eligibility could still alter the outcome before final proclamation.