Rafael López Aliaga's Renovación Popular list holds a narrow lead in the October 4 Lima municipal vote count at roughly 27.7% to Francis Allison's 26.8% with over 92% of tally sheets processed, consistent with pre-election polling that showed him ahead by double digits in multiple simulacros. His high name recognition from the prior mayoral term, combined with the withdrawal of his party's original mayoral nominee that positioned him as first councilor, underpins the 94.8% trader consensus on Polymarket. Fragmented support among remaining candidates has limited any late consolidation against him. The main variables that could still alter the outcome involve the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones ruling on whether constitutional limits on immediate mayoral re-election block his assumption of office or redirect the credential to the next eligible list member.