Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Morgan Stanley at 45% implied probability to serve as lead underwriter for SpaceX's blockbuster IPO, driven by its longstanding ties to Elon Musk—including leading Tesla's 2010 IPO and recent Twitter financing—bolstered by veteran banker Michael Grimes' February return to the firm. Goldman Sachs trails at 30%, reflecting its role in Tesla's 2020 equity offerings and inclusion in SpaceX's lead bookrunner group alongside Bank of America (9%), JPMorgan (2%), and others. Recent catalysts include SpaceX's April 1 confidential S-1 filing targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise, plus an April 6 banker call outlining a June 8 roadshow with up to 30% retail allocation via Morgan Stanley's E*Trade. No single "lead left" is designated amid 21 banks involved, heightening uncertainty ahead of the late-May prospectus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMorgan Stanley 45%
Goldman Sachs 30%
Bank of America 9.9%
JPMorgan 2.3%
$1,337,783 Vol.
$1,337,783 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Morgan Stanley
45%
Goldman Sachs
30%
Bank of America
10%
JPMorgan
2%
Deutsche Bank
1%
Citigroup
1%
UBS
<1%
Barclays
<1%
Wells Fargo
<1%
Morgan Stanley 45%
Goldman Sachs 30%
Bank of America 9.9%
JPMorgan 2.3%
$1,337,783 Vol.
$1,337,783 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Morgan Stanley
$330,140 Vol.
45%
Goldman Sachs
$242,188 Vol.
30%
Bank of America
$68,156 Vol.
10%
JPMorgan
$80,016 Vol.
2%
Deutsche Bank
$307,467 Vol.
1%
Citigroup
$98,894 Vol.
1%
UBS
$90,287 Vol.
<1%
Barclays
$64,344 Vol.
<1%
Wells Fargo
$56,292 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of SpaceX.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or SpaceX completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of SpaceX’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from SpaceX. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Morgan Stanley at 45% implied probability to serve as lead underwriter for SpaceX's blockbuster IPO, driven by its longstanding ties to Elon Musk—including leading Tesla's 2010 IPO and recent Twitter financing—bolstered by veteran banker Michael Grimes' February return to the firm. Goldman Sachs trails at 30%, reflecting its role in Tesla's 2020 equity offerings and inclusion in SpaceX's lead bookrunner group alongside Bank of America (9%), JPMorgan (2%), and others. Recent catalysts include SpaceX's April 1 confidential S-1 filing targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise, plus an April 6 banker call outlining a June 8 roadshow with up to 30% retail allocation via Morgan Stanley's E*Trade. No single "lead left" is designated amid 21 banks involved, heightening uncertainty ahead of the late-May prospectus.
This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of SpaceX.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or SpaceX completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of SpaceX’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from SpaceX. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or SpaceX completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of SpaceX’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from SpaceX. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 25, 2025, 1:28 PM ET
Volume
$1,337,783End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 25, 2025, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of SpaceX.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or SpaceX completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of SpaceX’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from SpaceX. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Morgan Stanley at 45% implied probability to serve as lead underwriter for SpaceX's blockbuster IPO, driven by its longstanding ties to Elon Musk—including leading Tesla's 2010 IPO and recent Twitter financing—bolstered by veteran banker Michael Grimes' February return to the firm. Goldman Sachs trails at 30%, reflecting its role in Tesla's 2020 equity offerings and inclusion in SpaceX's lead bookrunner group alongside Bank of America (9%), JPMorgan (2%), and others. Recent catalysts include SpaceX's April 1 confidential S-1 filing targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise, plus an April 6 banker call outlining a June 8 roadshow with up to 30% retail allocation via Morgan Stanley's E*Trade. No single "lead left" is designated amid 21 banks involved, heightening uncertainty ahead of the late-May prospectus.
This market will resolve according to the bank that serves as the lead underwriter in the initial public offering of SpaceX.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or SpaceX completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of SpaceX’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from SpaceX. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or SpaceX completes an initial public offering without a designated lead underwriter, this market will resolve to “Other.”
If multiple banks are identified as lead underwriters, this market will resolve according to the primary lead underwriter. If the hierarchy between them is unclear, this market will resolve once it is conclusively evident which bank is the primary lead underwriter, for example, through the order in which the banks are listed in the underwriting section of SpaceX’s final initial public offering prospectus, once released.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official disclosures from SpaceX. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,337,783End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Dec 25, 2025, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Morgan Stanley at 45% implied probability to serve as lead underwriter for SpaceX's blockbuster IPO, driven by its longstanding ties to Elon Musk—including leading Tesla's 2010 IPO and recent Twitter financing—bolstered by veteran banker Michael Grimes' February return to the firm. Goldman Sachs trails at 30%, reflecting its role in Tesla's 2020 equity offerings and inclusion in SpaceX's lead bookrunner group alongside Bank of America (9%), JPMorgan (2%), and others. Recent catalysts include SpaceX's April 1 confidential S-1 filing targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation and $75 billion raise, plus an April 6 banker call outlining a June 8 roadshow with up to 30% retail allocation via Morgan Stanley's E*Trade. No single "lead left" is designated amid 21 banks involved, heightening uncertainty ahead of the late-May prospectus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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