Morgan Stanley’s selection as lead-left underwriter, anchored by its role leading Anthropic’s recently expanded $15 billion credit facility, underpins the 82.5% implied probability. The bank has driven pricing discussions with investors ahead of the expected October Nasdaq listing targeting above $2 trillion valuation, replicating its prominent position on the prior SpaceX deal. Goldman Sachs, at 16.3%, is positioned as stabilization agent and co-lead, consistent with its financing commitments alongside JPMorgan and Citigroup. These roles reflect longstanding relationships and the tiered lending commitments that typically translate directly into IPO allocations, with lower probabilities for Citigroup, Barclays, and others tied to their secondary positions in the syndicate. Upcoming filing and roadshow timing remain key near-term catalysts for any sentiment shifts.