Morgan Stanley’s commanding 74% market-implied probability to serve as lead-left underwriter for Anthropic’s IPO reflects its role as lead arranger on the company’s recently expanded $15 billion revolving credit facility and its leadership in investor pricing discussions ahead of the expected late-September S-1 filing and mid-October roadshow. Goldman Sachs, priced at 14.3%, is positioned to act as stabilization agent, a role that typically follows joint bookrunner status but carries less control over final allocations. JPMorgan, Citigroup, and other banks hold supporting syndicate positions tied to their credit commitments, yet lack the same visibility in recent reporting on lead roles. The structure mirrors the pre-IPO financing hierarchy that has historically determined underwriting hierarchy in large technology offerings, with the credit facility serving as an explicit proxy for IPO mandates.