Morgan Stanley holds an 82.5% implied probability as lead underwriter for Anthropic’s IPO, reflecting its pole position for the lead-left role in recent reporting. The bank has led investor pricing discussions and anchored the $15 billion pre-IPO revolving credit facility alongside Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup, a structure that historically signals top underwriting mandates. Goldman Sachs trades at 16% amid expectations it will serve as stabilization agent, mirroring its SpaceX assignment. Lower-probability banks trail due to smaller commitments in the facility and syndicate hierarchy. The IPO, now eyed for mid-November after delays, remains subject to final prospectus disclosure and market conditions, with the credit line serving as the clearest near-term indicator of roles.