Market-implied odds assign Morgan Stanley an 82.5% chance of serving as lead underwriter for Anthropic’s anticipated IPO, driven by its reported lead-left role and lead arranger position on the company’s recently expanded $15 billion credit facility. Goldman Sachs holds the next-highest implied probability at 16.3% as the likely stabilization agent, consistent with its participation alongside Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Citigroup in pre-IPO financing and multiple 2026 mega-deals. These positions reflect established relationships, execution capacity in large technology offerings, and recent investor outreach activity ahead of a potential mid-October filing and roadshow. Bandwidth constraints across concurrent IPOs introduce modest uncertainty, though the current syndicate structure has remained stable in reporting since September.