Anthropic’s targeted $2 trillion-plus IPO valuation, supported by a revenue run-rate exceeding $65 billion annualized and expectations of further growth to $110 billion-plus by year-end, underpins its 58% market-implied probability as the largest 2026 IPO by market cap. This edges out SpaceX’s realized June debut at $1.77 trillion—following its record $75 billion raise at $135 per share and subsequent trading near $148–$171—reflecting trader consensus on Anthropic’s potential to surpass that benchmark despite elevated compute commitments of $518 billion and substantial operating losses. xAI’s 25.5% odds factor in its February acquisition by SpaceX at roughly $250 billion, folding its contribution into the existing public entity rather than enabling a standalone listing. With Anthropic’s filing now eyed for November after the U.S. midterms, implied probabilities hinge on execution of its revenue trajectory versus SpaceX’s established scale and post-IPO performance.