US military strikes on Kharg Island's military targets in mid-October 2026, including air defenses, naval facilities, and missile storage, represent the dominant recent catalyst shaping trader views on control scenarios. These operations, confirmed by US officials and referenced in statements from President Trump, left oil export infrastructure intact while degrading defensive capabilities, amid broader conflict involving Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and retaliatory actions. Iranian authorities continue to report normal terminal operations and exports, with shipping data showing tankers positioned nearby. Speculation around potential US or allied raids or seizure adds uncertainty, though no verified change in Iranian sovereignty has occurred. Upcoming deadlines tied to US demands and possible further strikes could influence near-term probabilities, while Iran's IRGC posture and regional alliances remain key variables.