Recent regional tensions following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death and the July state funeral ceremonies have shaped expectations for activity on his official X accounts during the July 14-21 window. Traders price moderate output most heavily, with the 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 buckets clustered near 46-52 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether the accounts will issue frequent statements on retaliation, leadership transition, or diplomatic pauses. Historical patterns of measured messaging during sensitive periods, combined with ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and warnings directed at Israel and the United States, keep probabilities tightly bunched. Escalation in military rhetoric, formal succession announcements, or renewed negotiations could widen gaps by driving higher or lower volume.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKhamenei # posts July 14 - July 21, 2026?
Khamenei # posts July 14 - July 21, 2026?
5-9 100.0%
<5 <1%
10-14 <1%
15-19 <1%
$20,312 Vol.
$20,312 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
<5
No
5-9
Yes
10-14
No
15-19
No
20-24
No
25-29
No
30-34
No
35-39
No
40-44
No
45-49
No
50-54
No
55-59
No
60+
No
5-9 100.0%
<5 <1%
10-14 <1%
15-19 <1%
$20,312 Vol.
$20,312 Vol.
Jul 21, 2026
<5
$5,915 Vol.
No
5-9
$3,401 Vol.
Yes
10-14
$1,869 Vol.
No
15-19
$1,355 Vol.
No
20-24
$921 Vol.
No
25-29
$1,215 Vol.
No
30-34
$1,971 Vol.
No
35-39
$691 Vol.
No
40-44
$373 Vol.
No
45-49
$762 Vol.
No
50-54
$687 Vol.
No
55-59
$710 Vol.
No
60+
$442 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent regional tensions following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death and the July state funeral ceremonies have shaped expectations for activity on his official X accounts during the July 14-21 window. Traders price moderate output most heavily, with the 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 buckets clustered near 46-52 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether the accounts will issue frequent statements on retaliation, leadership transition, or diplomatic pauses. Historical patterns of measured messaging during sensitive periods, combined with ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and warnings directed at Israel and the United States, keep probabilities tightly bunched. Escalation in military rhetoric, formal succession announcements, or renewed negotiations could widen gaps by driving higher or lower volume.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$20,312End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent regional tensions following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death and the July state funeral ceremonies have shaped expectations for activity on his official X accounts during the July 14-21 window. Traders price moderate output most heavily, with the 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 buckets clustered near 46-52 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether the accounts will issue frequent statements on retaliation, leadership transition, or diplomatic pauses. Historical patterns of measured messaging during sensitive periods, combined with ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and warnings directed at Israel and the United States, keep probabilities tightly bunched. Escalation in military rhetoric, formal succession announcements, or renewed negotiations could widen gaps by driving higher or lower volume.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between July 14, 12:00 PM ET and July 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$20,312End Date
Jul 21, 2026Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent regional tensions following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death and the July state funeral ceremonies have shaped expectations for activity on his official X accounts during the July 14-21 window. Traders price moderate output most heavily, with the 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 buckets clustered near 46-52 percent, reflecting uncertainty over whether the accounts will issue frequent statements on retaliation, leadership transition, or diplomatic pauses. Historical patterns of measured messaging during sensitive periods, combined with ongoing U.S.-Iran talks and warnings directed at Israel and the United States, keep probabilities tightly bunched. Escalation in military rhetoric, formal succession announcements, or renewed negotiations could widen gaps by driving higher or lower volume.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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