Trader sentiment heavily favors the Jones Act remaining intact through June 30, with the 99.2% implied probability on “No” reflecting the absence of any active legislation or executive pathway for permanent repeal or broad invalidation of its U.S.-build, ownership, flag, and crew requirements. A temporary waiver covering energy commodities and fertilizer, initially issued in March 2026 and extended through mid-August amid Iran-related supply disruptions, has eased immediate shipping constraints without altering the underlying statute. Congressional timelines, entrenched maritime industry opposition, and the need for statutory change make full removal before the deadline effectively impossible in the remaining window. Tail risks include an unforeseen national-defense emergency prompting rapid legislative override or court invalidation, though both scenarios lack supporting developments or precedent in the current environment.