The Justice Department's April 2026 decision to drop its criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's June 2025 Senate testimony on the central bank's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation remains the dominant factor suppressing market-implied odds of federal charges. A federal judge earlier quashed related subpoenas as a "pretext" amid broader administration pressure over monetary policy and interest-rate decisions, with no new indictments, regulatory filings, or congressional developments since. Traders assign negligible probabilities given institutional norms protecting senior policymakers, the absence of active grand jury activity, and historical precedent against prosecuting Fed leadership. Key near-term catalysts include the next FOMC meetings and any potential shifts in DOJ priorities under the current administration, though none currently signal revived scrutiny.