The DOJ's April 2026 decision to drop its criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell over the central bank's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation and related congressional testimony has anchored trader sentiment near 3% implied probability of federal charges by year-end. The inquiry, launched in late 2025 amid tensions over monetary policy independence and spending disclosures, produced grand jury subpoenas but no indictment before closure. With Powell concluding his term following the April FOMC meeting and no active enforcement actions, the market reflects the absence of ongoing legal exposure. Key upcoming data points include any late-year referrals or congressional oversight, though historical precedent for charging sitting or recent Fed chairs remains nonexistent.