The Justice Department’s October 2026 confirmation that it will not reopen its criminal probe into former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell remains the dominant factor anchoring market-implied odds of federal charges near 1-2% through year-end. The Fed Inspector General’s September report found no reasonable grounds for a criminal referral or administrative misconduct tied to the headquarters renovation cost overruns, which exceeded $2.4 billion after more than doubling from initial estimates. A federal judge had already quashed related subpoenas in March, citing insufficient evidence beyond policy disagreements over monetary policy. With the investigation closed since April and no new filings or congressional referrals emerging, trader consensus reflects the absence of viable legal pathways, though any unexpected inspector general follow-up or congressional action could theoretically alter the low-probability tail risk.