The Justice Department's criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, opened in January 2026 over headquarters renovation costs and congressional testimony, was dropped on April 24 after a federal judge found essentially no evidence of wrongdoing and ruled the subpoenas improper. This ended any realistic path to federal charges amid broader tensions over monetary policy independence and rate decisions. With the investigation closed for months and Powell's term winding down, trader sentiment reflects near-zero implied probability of indictment this year, consistent with historical precedent that sitting Fed chairs face no criminal accountability absent extraordinary evidence. Upcoming FOMC meetings and any transition developments could reinforce this baseline.