Ongoing US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan remain stalled as of early June 2026, more than two months after the April 7-8 ceasefire that halted direct hostilities from the February 28 joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian military and leadership targets. Core disputes center on limits to Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and access through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside Iranian demands linking any broader accord to an end to Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iranian officials have issued public threats of renewed strikes on Israel and shipping lanes in response to those operations, while both sides signal readiness to resume force if talks collapse. These dynamics sustain uncertainty over whether the fragile truce can evolve into a verifiable permanent peace agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$5,327,888 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
June 30
4%
$5,327,888 Vol.
June 30
$2,312,301 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan remain stalled as of early June 2026, more than two months after the April 7-8 ceasefire that halted direct hostilities from the February 28 joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian military and leadership targets. Core disputes center on limits to Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and access through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside Iranian demands linking any broader accord to an end to Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iranian officials have issued public threats of renewed strikes on Israel and shipping lanes in response to those operations, while both sides signal readiness to resume force if talks collapse. These dynamics sustain uncertainty over whether the fragile truce can evolve into a verifiable permanent peace agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volume
$5,327,888End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan remain stalled as of early June 2026, more than two months after the April 7-8 ceasefire that halted direct hostilities from the February 28 joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian military and leadership targets. Core disputes center on limits to Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and access through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside Iranian demands linking any broader accord to an end to Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iranian officials have issued public threats of renewed strikes on Israel and shipping lanes in response to those operations, while both sides signal readiness to resume force if talks collapse. These dynamics sustain uncertainty over whether the fragile truce can evolve into a verifiable permanent peace agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,327,888End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan remain stalled as of early June 2026, more than two months after the April 7-8 ceasefire that halted direct hostilities from the February 28 joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian military and leadership targets. Core disputes center on limits to Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and access through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside Iranian demands linking any broader accord to an end to Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iranian officials have issued public threats of renewed strikes on Israel and shipping lanes in response to those operations, while both sides signal readiness to resume force if talks collapse. These dynamics sustain uncertainty over whether the fragile truce can evolve into a verifiable permanent peace agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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