Recent developments center on fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan, with reports in mid-June 2026 indicating agreement on draft wording for a framework to extend the April 2026 truce, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and address Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles. Ongoing direct negotiations, the highest-level U.S.-Iran contacts since 1979, follow the February 2026 escalation that killed Iran's Supreme Leader and caused widespread regional damage. Israel, while not a direct party, has signaled conditions including limits on Iranian proxies and enriched material removal, amid recent June strikes that temporarily disrupted progress. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether these talks will yield a verifiable permanent bilateral agreement, given persistent gaps on enforcement, Lebanon-linked issues, and verification timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$7,828,716 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
June 30
16%
July 31
26%
$7,828,716 Vol.
June 30
$4,831,288 Vol.
16%
July 31
$3,971 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments center on fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan, with reports in mid-June 2026 indicating agreement on draft wording for a framework to extend the April 2026 truce, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and address Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles. Ongoing direct negotiations, the highest-level U.S.-Iran contacts since 1979, follow the February 2026 escalation that killed Iran's Supreme Leader and caused widespread regional damage. Israel, while not a direct party, has signaled conditions including limits on Iranian proxies and enriched material removal, amid recent June strikes that temporarily disrupted progress. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether these talks will yield a verifiable permanent bilateral agreement, given persistent gaps on enforcement, Lebanon-linked issues, and verification timelines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volume
$7,828,716End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments center on fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan, with reports in mid-June 2026 indicating agreement on draft wording for a framework to extend the April 2026 truce, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and address Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles. Ongoing direct negotiations, the highest-level U.S.-Iran contacts since 1979, follow the February 2026 escalation that killed Iran's Supreme Leader and caused widespread regional damage. Israel, while not a direct party, has signaled conditions including limits on Iranian proxies and enriched material removal, amid recent June strikes that temporarily disrupted progress. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether these talks will yield a verifiable permanent bilateral agreement, given persistent gaps on enforcement, Lebanon-linked issues, and verification timelines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,828,716End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent developments center on fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks mediated by Pakistan, with reports in mid-June 2026 indicating agreement on draft wording for a framework to extend the April 2026 truce, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and address Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missiles. Ongoing direct negotiations, the highest-level U.S.-Iran contacts since 1979, follow the February 2026 escalation that killed Iran's Supreme Leader and caused widespread regional damage. Israel, while not a direct party, has signaled conditions including limits on Iranian proxies and enriched material removal, amid recent June strikes that temporarily disrupted progress. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether these talks will yield a verifiable permanent bilateral agreement, given persistent gaps on enforcement, Lebanon-linked issues, and verification timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions