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icon for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Geopolitics·Iran Ceasefire

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

icon for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Geopolitics·Iran Ceasefire

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

$2,285,382 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$2,285,382 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30

$593,283 Vol.

6%

July 31

$76,735 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Recent U.S.-mediated talks produced a conditional ceasefire framework between Israel and Lebanon on June 4, 2026, establishing pilot security zones for Lebanese army deployment while requiring Hezbollah to halt fire, yet the accord omitted any timeline or commitment for Israeli troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Israeli officials immediately stated that forces would maintain positions, continue dismantling infrastructure, and prevent civilian returns, citing persistent security threats. Hezbollah rejected the terms outright, insisting on full Israeli withdrawal to pre-war lines as a prerequisite and labeling the deal unacceptable. Iranian statements reinforced this stance. Ongoing Israeli strikes in the south amid these positions underscore the core impasse between security demands and withdrawal conditions, with no scheduled diplomatic milestones immediately ahead.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$2,285,382
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Recent U.S.-mediated talks produced a conditional ceasefire framework between Israel and Lebanon on June 4, 2026, establishing pilot security zones for Lebanese army deployment while requiring Hezbollah to halt fire, yet the accord omitted any timeline or commitment for Israeli troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Israeli officials immediately stated that forces would maintain positions, continue dismantling infrastructure, and prevent civilian returns, citing persistent security threats. Hezbollah rejected the terms outright, insisting on full Israeli withdrawal to pre-war lines as a prerequisite and labeling the deal unacceptable. Iranian statements reinforced this stance. Ongoing Israeli strikes in the south amid these positions underscore the core impasse between security demands and withdrawal conditions, with no scheduled diplomatic milestones immediately ahead.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$2,285,382
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "July 31" at 16%, followed by "June 30" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" has generated $2.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" is "July 31" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.