Skip to main content
icon for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Geopolitics·Iran Ceasefire

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

icon for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Geopolitics·Iran Ceasefire

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

$2,306,500 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$2,306,500 Vol.

Polymarket

June 30

$609,336 Vol.

5%

July 31

$81,715 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel and Lebanon reached a US-mediated agreement on June 3, 2026, to implement a conditional ceasefire and establish pilot zones in southern Lebanon for Lebanese army deployment and Hezbollah restrictions, following multiple truce extensions earlier in the year. Hezbollah immediately rejected the terms, insisting on a full Israeli withdrawal from territory south of the Litani River as a prerequisite. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, have stated that IDF forces will not withdraw from these positions in the foreseeable future, citing ongoing security threats and Hezbollah rearmament. Limited Israeli pullbacks have occurred in select villages alongside Lebanese army advances, but broader withdrawal talks remain stalled amid continued strikes and diplomatic follow-up scheduled for June 22.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$2,306,500
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel and Lebanon reached a US-mediated agreement on June 3, 2026, to implement a conditional ceasefire and establish pilot zones in southern Lebanon for Lebanese army deployment and Hezbollah restrictions, following multiple truce extensions earlier in the year. Hezbollah immediately rejected the terms, insisting on a full Israeli withdrawal from territory south of the Litani River as a prerequisite. Israeli officials, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, have stated that IDF forces will not withdraw from these positions in the foreseeable future, citing ongoing security threats and Hezbollah rearmament. Limited Israeli pullbacks have occurred in select villages alongside Lebanese army advances, but broader withdrawal talks remain stalled amid continued strikes and diplomatic follow-up scheduled for June 22.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.

The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$2,306,500
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Related

icon for Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?

Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?

3%
icon for Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?

Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?

1%
icon for Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

100%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "July 31" at 14%, followed by "June 30" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" has generated $2.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" is "July 31" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "June 30" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.