Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on April 23 that forces stand ready to resume large-scale military operations against Iran, targeting energy and economic infrastructure in strikes described as "deadlier" than prior actions, pending U.S. approval amid stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks that prompted protests in Tel Aviv. This follows a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes began February 28, including attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants in late March, and an Iranian missile strike on Haifa April 6 that killed four. Hezbollah truce violations and Iran's April 6 ceasefire rejection heighten escalation risks, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over U.S. diplomatic signals and potential regime-targeting operations before any resolution deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael military action against Iran by...?
Israel military action against Iran by...?
$3,176,657 Vol.
Apr 21, 2026
April 14
No
April 21
No
$3,176,657 Vol.
April 14
$1,272,850 Vol.
No
April 21
$1,903,806 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on April 23 that forces stand ready to resume large-scale military operations against Iran, targeting energy and economic infrastructure in strikes described as "deadlier" than prior actions, pending U.S. approval amid stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks that prompted protests in Tel Aviv. This follows a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes began February 28, including attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants in late March, and an Iranian missile strike on Haifa April 6 that killed four. Hezbollah truce violations and Iran's April 6 ceasefire rejection heighten escalation risks, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over U.S. diplomatic signals and potential regime-targeting operations before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volume
$3,176,657End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on April 23 that forces stand ready to resume large-scale military operations against Iran, targeting energy and economic infrastructure in strikes described as "deadlier" than prior actions, pending U.S. approval amid stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks that prompted protests in Tel Aviv. This follows a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes began February 28, including attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants in late March, and an Iranian missile strike on Haifa April 6 that killed four. Hezbollah truce violations and Iran's April 6 ceasefire rejection heighten escalation risks, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over U.S. diplomatic signals and potential regime-targeting operations before any resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil between market creation and the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Iran counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$3,176,657End Date
Apr 21, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated on April 23 that forces stand ready to resume large-scale military operations against Iran, targeting energy and economic infrastructure in strikes described as "deadlier" than prior actions, pending U.S. approval amid stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks that prompted protests in Tel Aviv. This follows a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed April 8 after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes began February 28, including attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants in late March, and an Iranian missile strike on Haifa April 6 that killed four. Hezbollah truce violations and Iran's April 6 ceasefire rejection heighten escalation risks, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over U.S. diplomatic signals and potential regime-targeting operations before any resolution deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions