Recent Israeli polls place Yashar, the centrist party led by Gadi Eisenkot, in a tight contest with Likud for the largest Knesset share ahead of the October 27 election, with averages around 21-22 seats and frequent swings of one to three mandates depending on the pollster. Both the pro-Netanyahu and opposition Zionist blocs hover near 50-55 seats, short of the 61 needed for a majority, which keeps Yashar’s projected vote share clustered near 18-20 percent in trader pricing. The race stays close due to overlapping voter bases in the center-right, undecided turnout, and campaign focus on security, national service, and a post-October 7 inquiry. Late developments such as final-week polling shifts, security incidents, or differential turnout among Arab or Haredi voters could widen or narrow Yashar’s margin relative to Likud.