**Recent polling averages place Ra'am at approximately five Knesset seats, corresponding to roughly 4.2% of the vote, aligning with the market's leading 4-4.75% bracket.** Across multiple surveys from outlets including Channel 12, Channel 13, Maariv, and others in early-to-mid October 2026, the party led by Mansour Abbas has shown consistent support near this level, separate from the Joint List. This stability reflects steady Arab voter turnout expectations and Ra'am's distinct positioning ahead of the October 27 election. The 3.25% threshold remains a key structural factor, with recent Supreme Court rulings confirming the party's eligibility after earlier Central Elections Committee challenges. Coalition dynamics and surplus-vote agreements have not produced notable late swings for Ra'am specifically, keeping trader consensus centered on the polling-implied range while smaller probabilities reflect uncertainty around turnout or last-minute shifts.