Recent polling ahead of Israel’s October 27 Knesset election places Shas, led by Aryeh Deri, in a narrow band around eight seats, with individual surveys ranging from seven to ten. The party’s core ultra-Orthodox Sephardi base remains focused on securing legislation that preserves yeshiva exemptions from military conscription, a demand Deri has stated will determine coalition participation. Shas has adjusted its candidate list and messaging to highlight reservists and appeal to traditional voters, yet faces competition for those seats from other religious and right-leaning lists. The market’s near-even split between six-to-seven and eight-to-nine seats reflects uncertainty over final turnout among the party’s voters and how bloc negotiations shape the final distribution in a fragmented Knesset.