Recent polling trends have kept Amcha Yisrael's projected vote share low, with multiple surveys from late September through mid-October placing the new right-wing party led by Ofer Winter near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold required for Knesset entry. A high-profile candidate defection on October 13, amid reported pressure from figures including Bezalel Smotrich and Benjamin Netanyahu, highlighted concerns over wasted right-wing votes and further weakened momentum. The spread across low vote-share bins reflects ongoing uncertainty about final turnout among potential supporters and whether the party can consolidate enough backing before the election. Additional list withdrawals, surplus-vote agreements, or shifts in right-bloc preferences could alter the outcome in the remaining days.