Ongoing U.S.-brokered talks, including a June 2026 trilateral framework for Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, Lebanese Army deployment, and Hezbollah disarmament, have produced direct negotiations focused on border security and prisoner exchanges rather than diplomatic recognition. Hezbollah has rejected the accord and resists disarmament amid Lebanon’s internal political constraints and recent parliamentary elections. Lebanese officials, including the prime minister, have stated that full normalization remains far off and is tied to broader Arab Peace Initiative conditions. Recent August 2026 rounds in Rome have stayed limited to security issues, with no movement toward state-to-state diplomatic relations by the December 2026 deadline. Traders view these structural barriers and Hezbollah’s stance as sustaining the strong consensus against the outcome.