Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.

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Middle East

$149,263 Bet

Expires Nov 30, 2023

Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Nov 30?

Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Nov 30?

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas by Nov 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources. An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last 48h and to have begun before the resolution date (if the ceasefire begins on Nov 29, for example, this market would resolve to "Yes" if the ceasefire continues for 48h).


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Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes


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Outcome: Yes