Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?

Ended: Mar 30

$174,450 Vol.

Mar 30, 2026

March 18

$0 Vol.

Yes

March 19

$0 Vol.

Yes

March 20

$0 Vol.

Yes

March 21

$0 Vol.

March 22

$0 Vol.

Yes

March 23

$0 Vol.

Yes

March 24

$14,188 Vol.

Yes

March 25

$20,282 Vol.

Yes

March 26

$33,169 Vol.

March 27

$9,130 Vol.

Yes

March 28

$53,038 Vol.

Yes

March 29

$15,022 Vol.

Yes

March 30

$11,426 Vol.

Yes

March 31

$18,195 Vol.

$174,450 Vol.

March 18

$0 Vol.

Yes

March 19

$0 Vol.

Yes

March 20

$0 Vol.

Yes

March 21

$0 Vol.

March 22

$0 Vol.

Yes

March 23

$0 Vol.

Yes

March 24

$14,188 Vol.

Yes

March 25

$20,282 Vol.

Yes

March 26

$33,169 Vol.

March 27

$9,130 Vol.

Yes

March 28

$53,038 Vol.

Yes

March 29

$15,022 Vol.

Yes

March 30

$11,426 Vol.

Yes

March 31

$18,195 Vol.

Market Opened: Mar 17, 2026, 8:01 PM ET

Volume

$174,450

End Date

Mar 30, 2026

Market Opened

Mar 17, 2026, 8:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...

Volume

$174,450

End Date

Mar 30, 2026

Market Opened

Mar 17, 2026, 8:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "March 18" at 100%, followed by "March 19" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" has generated $174.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" is "March 18" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "March 19" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $174.5K traded on “Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "March 18" in the "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "March 18" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" market has been resolved. The final result has been determined and the market is no longer open for trading. You can still review the historical odds, outcome probabilities, and comments on this page to see how predictions evolved over time.

The "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" market has an active community of 336 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Note on Middle East Markets

Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?

Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Comments (336)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?"?

What are the current odds for "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?"?

How will "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" be resolved?

Can I follow "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?"?

What does a price of 100¢ for "March 18" mean?

When does the "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" market close?

What are traders saying about "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?"?

What is Polymarket?

Note on Middle East Markets

Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?

Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Comments (336)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?"?

What are the current odds for "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?"?

How will "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" be resolved?

Can I follow "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?"?

What does a price of 100¢ for "March 18" mean?

When does the "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?" market close?

What are traders saying about "Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?"?

What is Polymarket?