Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, triggering the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March via a vote meeting the required threshold. Mojtaba has remained out of public view for six months amid reported injuries, prompting senior officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian to affirm he is alive and directing affairs while hard-line factions and the IRGC expand influence through collective mechanisms. Ongoing conflict, sanctions, and economic strain have intensified questions over decision-making authenticity and regime stability, with traders monitoring any signals of further transition, health developments, or power consolidation that could shift probabilities before key resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$25,307,879 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
3%
October 31
7%
November 30
9%
December 31
16%
June 30, 2027
29%
$25,307,879 Vol.
September 30
$1,085,976 Vol.
3%
October 31
$92,490 Vol.
7%
November 30
$44,647 Vol.
9%
December 31
$4,491,632 Vol.
16%
June 30, 2027
$305,997 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, triggering the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March via a vote meeting the required threshold. Mojtaba has remained out of public view for six months amid reported injuries, prompting senior officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian to affirm he is alive and directing affairs while hard-line factions and the IRGC expand influence through collective mechanisms. Ongoing conflict, sanctions, and economic strain have intensified questions over decision-making authenticity and regime stability, with traders monitoring any signals of further transition, health developments, or power consolidation that could shift probabilities before key resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ET
Volume
$25,307,879End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, triggering the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March via a vote meeting the required threshold. Mojtaba has remained out of public view for six months amid reported injuries, prompting senior officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian to affirm he is alive and directing affairs while hard-line factions and the IRGC expand influence through collective mechanisms. Ongoing conflict, sanctions, and economic strain have intensified questions over decision-making authenticity and regime stability, with traders monitoring any signals of further transition, health developments, or power consolidation that could shift probabilities before key resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$25,307,879End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, triggering the Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March via a vote meeting the required threshold. Mojtaba has remained out of public view for six months amid reported injuries, prompting senior officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian to affirm he is alive and directing affairs while hard-line factions and the IRGC expand influence through collective mechanisms. Ongoing conflict, sanctions, and economic strain have intensified questions over decision-making authenticity and regime stability, with traders monitoring any signals of further transition, health developments, or power consolidation that could shift probabilities before key resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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