Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role of Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the February assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, during the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran conflict. The Assembly of Experts selected him in a unanimous vote amid wartime conditions, with the new leader backed by senior Revolutionary Guard Corps figures and hardline clerics. Recent August 2026 developments include formal appointments of allies such as Mohsen Rezaei to key security posts, reported meetings with President Masoud Pezeshkian on military and economic matters, and state media efforts to address his prolonged low public profile after injuries sustained in the attack. Trader consensus on near-term leadership change remains low, reflecting institutional continuity, IRGC influence, and the absence of confirmed challenges to Mojtaba’s authority, though health disclosures, diplomatic shifts, or internal regime pressures could alter probabilities before resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$25,174,034 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
September 30
2%
October 31
7%
November 30
9%
December 31
14%
June 30, 2027
28%
$25,174,034 Vol.
September 30
$1,032,856 Vol.
2%
October 31
$81,681 Vol.
7%
November 30
$43,370 Vol.
9%
December 31
$4,438,323 Vol.
14%
June 30, 2027
$290,667 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role of Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the February assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, during the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran conflict. The Assembly of Experts selected him in a unanimous vote amid wartime conditions, with the new leader backed by senior Revolutionary Guard Corps figures and hardline clerics. Recent August 2026 developments include formal appointments of allies such as Mohsen Rezaei to key security posts, reported meetings with President Masoud Pezeshkian on military and economic matters, and state media efforts to address his prolonged low public profile after injuries sustained in the attack. Trader consensus on near-term leadership change remains low, reflecting institutional continuity, IRGC influence, and the absence of confirmed challenges to Mojtaba’s authority, though health disclosures, diplomatic shifts, or internal regime pressures could alter probabilities before resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Volume
$25,174,034End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role of Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the February assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, during the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran conflict. The Assembly of Experts selected him in a unanimous vote amid wartime conditions, with the new leader backed by senior Revolutionary Guard Corps figures and hardline clerics. Recent August 2026 developments include formal appointments of allies such as Mohsen Rezaei to key security posts, reported meetings with President Masoud Pezeshkian on military and economic matters, and state media efforts to address his prolonged low public profile after injuries sustained in the attack. Trader consensus on near-term leadership change remains low, reflecting institutional continuity, IRGC influence, and the absence of confirmed challenges to Mojtaba’s authority, though health disclosures, diplomatic shifts, or internal regime pressures could alter probabilities before resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$25,174,034End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role of Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the February assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, during the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran conflict. The Assembly of Experts selected him in a unanimous vote amid wartime conditions, with the new leader backed by senior Revolutionary Guard Corps figures and hardline clerics. Recent August 2026 developments include formal appointments of allies such as Mohsen Rezaei to key security posts, reported meetings with President Masoud Pezeshkian on military and economic matters, and state media efforts to address his prolonged low public profile after injuries sustained in the attack. Trader consensus on near-term leadership change remains low, reflecting institutional continuity, IRGC influence, and the absence of confirmed challenges to Mojtaba’s authority, though health disclosures, diplomatic shifts, or internal regime pressures could alter probabilities before resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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