Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming 87.5% implied probability as Iran’s leader at the end of 2026 because the Assembly of Experts formally appointed him Supreme Leader in early March following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in U.S.-Israeli strikes. His selection, backed by Revolutionary Guard networks and clerical consensus, established continuity in the theocratic structure despite initial transition-council arrangements involving figures such as Alireza Arafi and Masoud Pezeshkian. Recent developments, including Iranian presidential statements affirming his health after months of limited public visibility, a brief video release countering injury speculation, and his June message on hybrid warfare, have reinforced stability. Traders price alternatives like Reza Pahlavi or other clerics at single-digit levels given the absence of constitutional triggers or reported challenges that could alter the succession outcome before year-end.