Mojtaba Khamenei’s overwhelming market lead stems from his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei’s death in late February strikes, backed by Revolutionary Guard networks and constitutional procedures that favor continuity during conflict. Official statements, including President Masoud Pezeshkian’s September confirmation of extended meetings and full health, plus decrees appointing military commanders, reinforce his active role despite prolonged public absence and injury speculation. Reports of internal discussions about a post-conflict transition exist but remain unconfirmed and secondary to the current power structure, while alternatives like Alireza Arafi or others lack comparable institutional momentum. Traders price in low near-term disruption risk through year-end given wartime pressures and elite consensus signals.