**Ongoing regional military tensions and aviation sanctions continue to shape expectations around potential Iranian airspace actions.** Following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in February 2026 and subsequent Iranian responses, the Tehran FIR (OIIX) experienced a full closure before partial reopening of eastern overflight routes in June 2026. Western sectors have remained restricted amid air-defense risks. As of mid-October 2026, most international carriers avoid the airspace due to EASA, FAA, and national advisories citing misidentification threats, even though Iranian authorities have not issued a blanket formal closure. Recent US sanctions on Iranian-linked aviation entities, effective late September, sharply reduced international flights to Tehran (down ~42%), prompting rerouting and limited bilateral exemptions. Brief temporary restrictions have occurred, such as a multi-hour shutdown earlier in the year. Trader focus centers on escalation signals, diplomatic timelines, and regulatory review dates through November 2026 that could prompt renewed full closures or sustained partial operations.